Fragment wrote: Sun Sep 29, 2024 4:58 am
I guess total numbers. What I mean is that just like the War on Drugs didn't seem to impact the rate of drug use in society as a whole, the War on CSA doesn't actually seem to be doing much to reduce CSA. CSA is still rampant. If we look at the social problem of abuse as a whole, and we want to reduce abuse, then we should take policies that actually achieve that.
I don't know if it actually could be the total numbers, because how would they measure the rate of CSA if not as crimes? It's hard to say what the difference between prosecuted versus non-prosecuted CSA because that would be a dark figure. Plus that would mean that every CS abuser that's imprisoned is being replaced by someone else committing CSA while they are in prison in order for the rates to stay the same. Hard to say for sure without seeing the source, but that would be my guess.
Like we spoke once at B4um about, I think there is very likely a "chilling effect" where the harshness of penalties against CSA and the sexphobic nature of society generally actually discourage both open discussion and reporting. I think it's very likely that a society where AMSC was "okay" would result in the ability to talk more openly about the cases where it is definitely not "okay".
This is a good thing to bear in mind if laws change eventually - an increase in CSA with the lowering of AoC could be a sign that the chilling effect has stopped rather than emboldening predatory behavior as most people would spin it.
Surely this only applies to a recidivism rate that is high regardless of punishment. If a 2 year sentence and 20 year sentence both result in a recidivism rate of under 5% is there any reason for the 20 year sentence?
Compare with murder. If a person kills at the same rate for 2 or 20 years, that's an argument for a longer sentence. We know the comparison is a false one, but the overwhelming majority of non-MAPs haven't even been convinced that statutory rape is blown out of proportion. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced it's a persuasive line of argument for our aims. Happy to be proven wrong, though.
Pharmakon wrote: Sun Sep 29, 2024 8:14 am
I think the Finnish data supports the idea that rates of AMSC have declined. This suggests we should not argue that the punitive regime is ineffective.
This is what I expected the evidence to suggest.
On the contrary, we should argue that it is operating to limit the sexual agency of kids, making them reluctant to explore sexual opportunities as they are entitled to. The CSA campaign, imho, is a form of terrorism that has harmed kids by making them afraid of sex in general, and especially of age gap sex.
I think I agree with this perspective, but I don't think it's persuasive to a non-MAP audience. The current laws are much harsher on MAPs than on minors exploring their sexuality.
Over all, the issue is not just making arguments that agree with the available evidence, arguments have to also "checkmate" people so they can't slip into performative hatred of pedophiles. Everyone is trying to demonstrate how much they hate pedophiles, so if they have an option between saying recidivism makes no difference on CSA rates so "we should reduce sentences" or "we should give pedophiles life in prison", they'll always choose the second option. We need to push people to bite the bullet on these issue, which means cutting off any option to virtue signal about hating pedophiles.
AKA WandersGlade.